An attempt to break out of a month-long consolidation fizzled out as the Nifty declined and returned inside the trading zone it had created for itself. Over the past five sessions, the markets consolidated just above the upper edge of the trading zone; however, this failed to result in a breakout as the markets suffered a corrective retracement. The trading range stayed wider on anticipated lines; the Index oscillated in a 749-point range over the past week. The volatility rose; the India Vix climbed 3.08% to 15.08 on a weekly basis. The headline Index closed with a net weekly loss of 284.45 points (-1.14%).

We have a fresh set of geopolitical tensions to deal with Israel attacking Iran. The global equity markets are likely to remain affected, and India will be no exception to this. Having said this, the Indian markets are relatively stronger than their peers and are likely to stay that way. Despite the negative reaction to the global uncertainties, Nifty has shown great resilience and has remained in the 24500-25100 trading zone, in which it has been trading for over a month now. There are high possibilities that over the coming week, the Nifty may stay volatile and oscillate in a wide range, but it is unlikely to create any directional bias. A sustainable trend would emerge only after Nifty takes out 25100 on the upside or violates the 24500 level.

The levels of 25100 and 25300 are likely to act as resistance points in the coming week. The supports are likely to come in at 24500 and 24380.

The weekly RSI stands at 57.67; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line.

The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the Nifty has failed to break above the rising trendline resistance. This trendline begins from 21150 and joins the subsequent higher bottoms. Besides this, it reinforces the 25100 level as a strong resistance point. For any trending upmove to emerge, it would be crucial for the Index to move past this level convincingly.

Overall, it is unlikely that the Nifty will violate the 24500 levels. The options data shows very negligible call writing below 24500 strikes, increasing the possibility of this level staying defended over the coming days. Unless there is a situation with more gravity to be dealt with, the markets may stay largely in a defined trading range. The sector rotation stays visible in favor of traditionally defensive pockets and low-beta stocks. We continue to recommend a cautious stance as long as the Index does not move past the 25100 level and stays above that point. Until then, a highly stock-specific approach is recommended while guarding profits at higher levels.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty Midcap 100 has rolled inside the leading quadrant and is set to outperform the broader markets relatively. The Nifty PSU Bank and PSE Indices are also inside the leading quadrant; however, they are giving up on their relative momentum.

The Nifty Infrastructure Index has rolled into the weakening quadrant. The Banknifty, Services Sector Index, Consumption, Financial Services, and Commodities Sector Indices are also inside the weakening quadrant. While stock-specific performance may be seen, the collective relative outperformance may diminish.

The Nifty FMCG Index languishes in the lagging quadrant. The Metal and Pharma Indices are also in the lagging quadrant, but they are improving their relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 Index.

The Nifty Realty, Media, Auto, and Energy Sector Indices are inside the improving quadrant; they may continue improving their relative performance against the broader markets.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

This Time Technology Beats Financials

After a week of no changes, we’re back with renewed sector movements, and it’s another round of leapfrogging.

This week, technology has muscled its way back into the top five sectors at the expense of financials, highlighting the ongoing volatility in the market.

Communication Services and Consumer Staples have swapped places since last week, while Technology has entered at number five, pushing Financials down to sixth. The remaining sectors from seven to eleven remain unchanged.

This constant shuffling is a clear indicator of the market’s indecision. Imho, such volatility usually doesn’t accompany a sustainable trend, and that’s precisely what’s hurting trend-following models right now.

1. (1) Industrials – (XLI)
2. (2) Utilities – (XLU)
3. (4) Communication Services – (XLC)*
4. (3) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
5. (6) Technology – (XLK)*
6. (5) Financials – (XLF)*
7. (7) Real-Estate – (XLRE)
8. (8) Materials – (XLB)
9. (9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)
10. (10) Healthcare – (XLV)
11. (11) Energy – (XLE)

Weekly RRG Analysis

On the weekly Relative Rotation Graph, the Technology sector is showing impressive strength. Its tail is well-positioned in the improving quadrant, nearly entering the leading quadrant with a strong RRG heading. This movement explains Technology’s climb back into the top ranks.

Industrials remains the only top-five sector still inside the leading quadrant on the weekly RRG. It continues to gain relative strength, moving higher on the JdK RS-Ratio axis, while slightly losing relative momentum. All in all, this tail is still in good shape.

Utilities, Communication Services, and Consumer Staples are all currently in the weakening quadrant. Utilities and Staples show negative headings but maintain high RS-Ratio readings, giving them room to potentially curl back up. Communication Services is losing ground on the RS-Ratio scale but starting to pick up relative momentum.

Daily RRG: A Different Picture

Switching our focus to the daily RRG reveals a somewhat different story:

• Industrials has moved into the lagging quadrant, losing ground on the RS-Ratio scale
• Utilities and Staples are rolling back into the lagging quadrant with negative headings — not a great sign
• Communication Services remains close to the benchmark
• Technology shows the strongest tail, nearly completing a leading-weakening-leading rotation

This daily view underscores the strength we’re seeing in the Technology sector on the weekly timeframe.

Industrials: Facing Resistance

XLI dropped back below its previous high after a strong showing the week prior. There’s significant resistance between $142.50 and $145.

In a worst-case scenario, I think XLI could even retreat to the gap area between $137.50 and $139.

The uptrend remains intact, but more buying power is needed for a convincing break to new highs.

Utilities: Range-Bound

XLU is now trading in a range between roughly $80 on the downside and $83 on the upside.

It needs to break above the former high to continue building relative strength.

The raw RS line has returned to its trading range, dragging both RRG lines lower — not the strongest outlook for this defensive sector.

Communication Services: Testing Resistance

The sector peaked almost exactly at resistance offered by its previous high around $105, then closed at the lower end of the bar.

The raw RS line is managing to stay within its rising channel, albeit horizontally.

A sustained upward price movement is crucial for maintaining relative strength here.

Consumer Staples: Struggling to Break Higher

XLP continues to face heavy overhead resistance between $82 and $83.

Its inability to break higher is starting to hurt relative strength.

The raw RS line has moved down from a recent high, dragging the RRG lines lower.

The RS-Momentum line has already crossed below 100, positioning the weekly tail inside the weakening quadrant.

Technology: The Comeback Kid

XLK, the new kid on the block (again), tested its overhead resistance level around $244, peaking slightly above it last week before closing lower.

Recent strength has pushed the raw RS line convincingly higher, taking out its previous peak from mid-December.

Both RRG lines are pointing strongly upward, with RS-Momentum already above 100 and RS-Ratio rapidly approaching 100.

Portfolio Performance

With all this sector leapfrogging, especially involving the heavyweight Technology sector, the gap between the top five sectors’ performance and SPY has widened to around 7%.

The drawdown continues, but I’m sticking with this experiment and trusting the model to come back and start beating SPY again.

Yes, a 7% lag sounds significant (and it is), but it can change rapidly in such a concentrated portfolio. One or two strong weeks could easily turn this performance around, particularly if big sectors like Technology and potentially Consumer Discretionary become part of the top five.

#StayAlert and have a great week. –Julius

In this video, Mary Ellen spotlights breakouts in Energy and Defense, Technology sector leadership, S&P 500 resilience, and more. She then unpacks the stablecoin fallout hitting Visa and Mastercard, highlights Oracle’s earnings breakout, and shares some pullback opportunities.

This video originally premiered June 13, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

With oil prices surging and geopolitical unrest stirring in the Middle East, it’s no surprise that energy stocks are drawing renewed attention. And, quite frankly, this week didn’t have many market-moving earnings. So this week, we skate to where the puck is, or, in this case, where traders’ eyes will be focused—the Energy sector.

In the past, we have witnessed this sector spike due to conflicts, and changes can come quickly. The following setups appear to favor continued and quick momentum to the upside.

Energy: A Sector on the Move

Let’s begin with the big picture: the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE). This ETF offers a broad view of the energy landscape. Yes, 40% of this ETF consists of just two stocks — Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX). So these two will drive the bus when it comes to price action. However, when looking at the entire sector, we see some good risk/reward setups worth monitoring.

From early 2024, XLE has been trading in a rather wide neutral range. In April, though, the ETF broke down and fell out of that range. That was due in part to cheaper oil prices and a reaction to Liberation Day tariffs. This ended up being a classic bear trap, as price held its 200-week moving average (red circle above) and moved back into its range.

The adage, “from false moves come fast moves in the opposite direction,” is well in play here, and given the fundamental backdrop of oil spiking due to conflict, the push higher should continue.

From a risk/reward set-up, the ETF could climb towards the top end of its range and likely break out higher. The risk is at the bottom of the neutral range — support at $82.50 with a first stop upside target of $95. Given Friday’s close, it’s not too much of a risk/reward difference, but momentum indicators suggest the upside is achievable, possibly quickly.

The weekly Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is flashing a strong buy signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is breaking a downtrend going back to its August 2024 peak. It has all the makings of a run to resistance and potential breakout, with conservative upside targets of $108 given the range from which the ETF is breaking out.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY): A Buffett Favorite Reawakens

If you’ve followed Warren Buffett’s investments, you’ll recognize Occidental Petroleum (OXY). The stock has been beaten down for quite some time, but, last week, it awoke from its slumber.

OXY shares spiked on Friday, which puts it at a key inflection point. This price action caught our eye, since we are focusing on some good setups from a risk/reward perspective. There could be more room for the stock to run.

OXY enters the week at its weekly downtrend, going back to its 2024 peak at $69.56. Technically, there is major resistance ahead, but it seems poised to attack those levels and has a lot to reverse, which can give investors a nice percentage gain in the meantime.

If shares can eclipse this recent downtrend, then expect a quick run to its 200-week moving average at the $52/$53 level. This level acted as a major consolidation point for years; the once mighty support area could act as resistance and must be watched closely. However, a date with this level looks quite promising and represents a 15% gain from Friday’s close.

If momentum continues and OXY breaks through that level, it’s smooth sailing for another 15+% upside toward the $60 area. OXY could continue to its 2022–2023 consolidation area and do so quickly.

Baker Hughes (BKR): Is It Ready to Wake Up?

Lastly, we turn to Baker Hughes (BKR), an oilfield services and technology company that has been a major laggard since its February peak of $48.85. Technically, it enters the week at a major inflection point.

BKR has formed an ascending triangle, which is nearing its breaking point. That point happens to be at its longer-term downtrend and its 200-day moving average, which makes for an interesting setup.

Downside risk could see shares fall back to their 50-day moving average and the rising short-term average that’s within this tradable formation. If BKR breaks below that level, all bets for this near-term rally are off. 

The upside risk favors the bulls. If BKR were to break out, this would confirm a new uptrend, with upside targets 15–20% higher than Friday’s close.

Final Thoughts

The setups we’re seeing in the Energy sector offer a favorable balance between risk and reward. Be mindful of the downside risks and place your stops in the event the position goes against you. Remember, energy markets can shift quickly, especially when geopolitical tensions are involved.

When you see headlines about geopolitical tensions and how the stock market sold off on the news, it can feel unsettling, especially when it comes to your hard-earned savings. But what you might not hear about in the news is what the charts are indicating.

Look at what happened in the stock market recently. On Friday, investors were bracing for a rocky start this week, expecting geopolitical tensions to shake up the stock market. That’s not what unfolded. After Friday’s +1% dip, the U.S. indexes bounced back, starting the week off on a positive note. It just goes to show how quickly things can shift, and often, not in the way we might anticipate.

A Closer Look at the S&P 500

The S&P 500 ($SPX) looks like it’s back on track and attempting to move toward its all-time high. Volatility has also retreated, and oil prices, which went as high as $77.62 a barrel, have pulled back to slightly above $71.

Think of it this way: if you took Friday’s price action out of the equation, the S&P 500 has been moving steadily by grinding out its narrow range sideways move. The uptrend in equities is still in play, despite the Middle East conflict.

The StockCharts Market Summary page shows that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) are trading well above their 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), while the Dow Industrials ($INDU) is struggling to remain above the benchmark. Small-cap stocks continue to struggle, which suggests that growth leadership continues to be on investors’ radars. You can see this in the sector performance panel, which shows Technology in the lead.

Since tech stocks make up a significant portion of the S&P 500, let’s take a closer look at the daily chart.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF S&P 500. The week started off on a positive note despite Middle East tensions. Monitor trends, key levels, and momentum indicators.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

As mentioned earlier, not much has happened in the S&P 500 despite Friday’s selloff. The overall uptrend is still in place. The index is trading above its 21-day exponential moving average. The S&P 500 is about 1.84% away from its all-time high.

However, even though the bias is slightly bullish, there are indications that the market’s momentum isn’t strong at the moment. Here’s why:

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is faltering, indicating momentum isn’t quite there yet. Note the RSI is not moving higher with the index, meaning it’s diverging.
• The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) has been relatively flat and sloping slightly downward since the end of May. This confirms the stalling momentum indicated by the RSI.
• The 200-day SMA is above the 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA needs to cross above the 200-day SMA to confirm the bullish bias.

What to Watch

Keeping the trend direction and momentum in mind, here are some levels to monitor on the chart.

• Just below 6150: This area represents the S&P 500’s all-time high. If the index reaches this level, it will likely be met with resistance. A break above this level would elevate bullish sentiment and show upside momentum in the market.
• Between 5950 and 6050: The S&P 500 has been moving within this range for most of the month. It almost seems as if it’s waiting for something to act as a catalyst to move it in either direction. When it happens, the RSI and PPO will indicate whether momentum is to the upside or downside.
• The 5775 area: This level represents the March 24 to March 26 high and the May 12 and May 23 lows. A break below this level would not be bullish for the S&P 500. Note that the 200-day SMA is close to this level.

The Bottom Line

The stock market always has its ups and downs, and some days may feel more uncertain than others. However, by focusing on long-term trends and support or resistance levels based on past highs and lows, you can approach your investment decisions with a more objective mindset.

Instead of reacting to news headlines, consider adding the “lines in the sand” — key support and resistance levels, trendlines, price channels — to your charts. These can be added to daily, weekly, or monthly time frames. Monitoring the market’s action at these levels can offer valuable insights and better prepare you for whatever comes your way.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Follow along with Frank as he presents the outlook for the S&P 500, using three key charts to spot bullish breakouts, pullback zones, and MACD signals. Frank compares bearish and bullish setups using his pattern grid, analyzing which of the two is on top, and explains why he’s eyeing SMCI and AMD as potential trades. From there, he wraps the show with a look at some ETF plays.

This video originally premiered on June 17, 2025.

You can view previously recorded videos from Frank and other industry experts at this link.

Joe presents his game-changing “undercut and rally” trading pattern, which can be found in high volatility conditions and observed via RSI, MACD and ADX signals. Joe uses the S&P 500 ETF as a live case study, with its fast shake-out below support followed by an equally quick rebound; a good illustration of why lagging indicators can’t be trusted right after a vertical drop.

In addition, Joe maps out three possible scenarios for the S&P: (1) an orderly pullback, (2) a disorderly slide that erases moving-average support, or (3) a breakout. He closes by analyzing viewer requests, spotlighting DOCS and KMI for constructive consolidations, and flagging PGEN as still too weak for a swing entry.

The video premiered on June 18, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

Grayson explores a hidden gem on the SharpCharts platform: StyleButtons! These handy little customizable tabs give you quick, one-click access to your favorite chart templates, allowing you to jump from ChartStyle to ChartStyle with a seriously streamlined charting workflow. Grayson demonstrates how to create and save ChartStyles and assign them to StyleButtons in your account – a major efficiency boost for all StockCharts users! Plus, he describes how he uses StyleButtons to make multi-timeframe analysis a breeze and explain his unique “indicator layering” approach to ChartStyles.

This video originally premiered on June 18, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.