The Nifty traded in a broadly sideways and range-bound manner throughout the previous week and ended the week with a modest decline. The Index oscillated within a narrow 276-point range, between 25144.60 on the higher end and 24918.65 on the lower end, before settling mildly lower. The India VIX declined by 3.60% over the week to 11.39, suggesting continued complacency in the markets. On a weekly basis, Nifty ended with a net loss of 181.45 points or (-0.72%).

The Nifty is presently consolidating just below a key resistance zone after attempting a breakout above a rising channel. This zone, between 25100 and 25350, has proven to be a supply area where profit-taking has emerged. While the broader trend remains intact and the Nifty is above key moving averages, it is still within a complex zone of consolidation. This pause in momentum comes after a sharp up move from the lows near 21743 in April. A strong breakout above the 25265 –25350 zone, with a closing confirmation, may resume the uptrend. Conversely, a sustained move below 24750 could trigger incremental weakness and drag the Nifty towards lower supports.

 As we head into the new week, the markets may see a cautious start amid the current range-bound setup. The immediate resistance is at 25150, followed by 25400. On the lower side, the key support zones are placed at 24750 and further near 24380.

The weekly RSI stands at 56.54 and remains neutral without showing any divergence against price. It has made a fresh 14-period low, which is bearish. The MACD remains above its signal line on the weekly chart, continuing to indicate a positive crossover. No significant candlestick formation was observed for the week.

From a pattern analysis perspective, Nifty is trading just below the upper bound of a rising channel that it had briefly broken out of. With the Index slipping below the support levels of 25000-25150, it faces resistance at this zone again, failing to follow through on the breakout. Price action is still above the 20-week and 50-week moving averages, maintaining a bullish undertone from a medium-term perspective. However, the ongoing sideways action indicates a lack of fresh directional conviction.

Given the current technical structure, it would be prudent for traders to remain selective and protect profits at higher levels. The markets are not displaying signs of aggressive strength, and unless there is a convincing move above 25350, a stock-specific approach with tight risk management is advised. Traders may avoid aggressive fresh buying until a directional move is clearly established. Cautious optimism, with a focus on stocks exhibiting stronger relative strength, is the ideal approach for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty Media and the Metal Index have rolled inside the leading quadrant. The Midcap 100, Realty, and PSU Bank Index are also inside the leading quadrant. These groups are likely to relatively outperform the broader Nifty 500 Index.

The Nifty Bank, PSE, and the Financial Services Index are inside the weakening quadrant. They may experience a decline in relative performance compared to the broader markets.

The Nifty Services Sector Index, Pharma, Consumption, and the FMCG Index continue to languish inside the lagging quadrant. Among these groups, the Pharma Index shows improvement in its relative momentum against the broader markets.

The IT Index is inside the improving quadrant; it continues to improve its relative momentum against the benchmark. The Auto Index, which is also inside the improving quadrant, is seen deteriorating in relative momentum.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

Sector Rotation Stalls, Tech Remains King

Despite a slight rise in the S&P 500 over the past week, the sector rotation landscape is presenting an intriguing picture. For the first time in recent memory, we’re seeing absolutely no changes in the composition of the sector ranking — not just in the top five, but across the board. Will this stability kick off a return to a period of more significant trends in relative strength and a return to outperformance for the portfolio?

1. (1) Technology – (XLK)
2. (2) Industrials – (XLI)
3. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)
4. (4) Financials – (XLF)
5. (5) Materials – (XLB)
6. (6) Utilities – (XLU)
7. (7) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)
8. (8) Consumer Staples – (XLP)
9. (9) Real-Estate – (XLRE)
10. (10) Energy – (XLE)
11. (11) Healthcare – (XLV)

Technology

The tech sector continues to flex its muscles, moving up on the price ratio scale while maintaining a stable momentum around 103. This sustained strength is a clear indication that tech remains the sector to beat in the current market environment.

On the daily RRG, we’re seeing a nice rotation backup for tech while inside the weakening quadrant, a sign of strength that confirms the move on the weekly RRG. The raw RS line for tech is climbing almost straight up, reflecting very strong RRG lines. There might be a slight loss of momentum, but make no mistake, tech is still the strongest player in the game.

Industrials

Industrials is currently rotating out of the leading quadrant and sits on the verge of moving into weakening. However, it’s crucial to note that it still holds the second-highest rank based on the RS ratio. This positioning suggests that the odds for a rotation back up towards the leading quadrant are still in play.

The daily RRG shows industrials confirming its strength with a move further into the leading quadrant, moving up on the RS ratio scale while keeping stable momentum.

After breaking out of overhead resistance, the price chart continues higher, and a new higher low is visible on the relative strength line. This keeps the RS ratio line at elevated levels, though the RS momentum line is still moving lower just above 100. If this RS line can maintain a series of higher highs or higher lows, I expect the RS momentum line to bottom out soon and follow the RS ratio higher.

Communication Services

The communication services sector is positioned inside the weakening quadrant on the weekly RRG but has hooked back to the left and is now even lower on the RS ratio scale. It’s moving towards the lagging corner, which is a concerning trend for its top 5 position.

On the daily RRG, communication services have moved into the lagging quadrant. It has started to slow down on the negative momentum, but we need a rotation back up on this daily RRG into the improving quadrant and back to leading to have that weekly tail curl back up to its leading quadrant as well.

The price chart shows the sector holding up after breaking higher, with a pullback now finding support at the level of old resistance, respecting the rule that old resistance is expected to work as support going forward. The problem child here is the raw RS line, which has fallen below its rising support line. This is taking its toll on the RRG lines, with both RS ratio and RS momentum rolling over and starting to move down.

Financials

Financials are inside the lagging quadrant on the weekly RRG, moving at a negative heading. This means that a significant amount of strength is needed from the daily tail to keep this sector within the top five.

On the price chart, financials are playing around with overhead resistance around 52, with a small consolidation area and a pennant-like formation suggesting more upside potential on the price chart.

However, this is not confirmed on the relative strength chart, where the RS line has broken its rising trend and is moving lower.

Materials

Materials are also inside the lagging quadrant on the weekly RRG and traveling a negative heading, like financials. Here, also, strength is needed from the daily teams to keep the sector inside the top five.

Materials are holding up on the price chart after a break that could be described as a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern. The relative strength line remains contained within the boundaries of its falling channel, but hugging the falling resistance line.

We need a break higher to turn that trend around. Only an upward breakout of that relative downtrend will turn the RRG lines around and provide a lifeline for materials to maintain its position inside the top five.

Portfolio Performance

The portfolio continues to lag the S&P 500, currently sitting around 8% behind. It seems to be stabilizing for now, but it’s not exactly what we want, of course. A drawdown of around 8-10% is not unprecedented, based on historical backtests; however, it’s somewhat disappointing that it occurs right when we begin operating in a semi-live environment.

That said, the fact that we’re now stable with no changes after a period of significant volatility over recent months could be a sign that we’re ready to enter a new period with stable relative trends that can bring the portfolio back to outperformance.

#StayAlert and have a great week. –Julius

This week, let’s dive into three interesting stocks: a well-known Dow stalwart, a tech giant in a tug of war, and a former Dow member showing signs of revival. Whether you’re looking for opportunity, caution, or something worth watching, there’s a little something here for every thoughtful investor.

Sherwin-Williams (SHW): Painting a Better Picture?

Sherwin-Williams, Co. (SHW) comes into earnings flat year-to-date, and is hoping that a solid quarterly result can turn the price around. This Dow stock, and the second biggest member of the Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB), has traded higher after three of its last four results and has an average expected move of +/- 3.6% when it reports.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF SHERWIN-WILLIAMS. The uptrend needs to hold to maintain the uptrend.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

From a technical perspective, there are some bright spots. The reality, however, is that the stock has a lot of work to do to be considered healthy again. And from a risk/reward metric, this recent uptrend from the lows needs to hold. Otherwise, look for a retest of the $310 level on a dip.

The good, the bad, and the ugly:

Shares continue to make higher lows, which is a bullish sign

There’s bullish divergence in its Relative Strength Index (RSI) — it’s going higher while the stock stalls

The MACD gave us a short-lived buy signal and has now turned negative

Trading below both key moving averages

There’s major resistance at the $360 level

This is one to put on your watchlist, with definitive risk/reward levels to monitor. To jump in ahead of earnings seems more of a crapshoot, so reacting to price action may be the best play. Patience may be your best friend.

Alphabet (GOOGL): A Mag Stock or Just Mag History?

Alphabet, one of the “Magnificent 7” stocks, has had a rough ride lately. The company has been facing continual headwinds due to antitrust and litigation risk, AI competition disrupting search, and a massive CapEx spend.

Shares have been stuck in neutral for the last year. They are lower by -2.5% year-to-date and 11% off all-time highs. If the company can address these concerns and focus on the positives of its YouTube and Waymo divisions, it could be back on the upswing.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF GOOGL STOCK. It’s in the middle of a rebound and could be at an interesting pivot point.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Technically, I will keep this five-year daily chart as simple as possible. It’s intriguing, to say the least.

GOOGL was dangerously close to breaking down in early April, but quickly regained its key support level. Now it finds itself in the middle of a nice rebound and at an interesting pivot point. The bull case is more concrete at these levels, but I’m sure the bears are looking at a potential head-and-shoulders topping formation in the works as well.

As we examine, watch the 50 and 200-day moving averages closely. They are at a key consolidation area and need to act as support in a small downturn. If not, then back to the major support area we go, and a potential head-and-shoulders top is in play. 

The good news is that overall momentum continues to favor the upside. We have a good support area at the averages (your risk) and then a potential run to $200 easily if we get a nice pop on earnings. If so, this could be the fourth of the “Magnificent 7” stocks trading at all-time highs.

Intel (INTC): A Blast From the Past, Showing Signs of Life?

Remember Intel? It once dominated the landscape during the dot-com era, was a proud member of the Dow, and now is just a struggling former tech giant trying to stay relevant in a challenging environment. We are not claiming they are back by any stretch, but maybe the worst is over for now, as new management and constructive price action have set up a “deja vu” trade that hearkens back to early 2023.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF INTC STOCK. The stock is above its 50-week moving average, there’s a bullish divergence in the RSI and MACD, and the bottom base was tested several times.

Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Technically, we highlight price action daily over a five-year weekly period. The risk/reward set-up seems quite favorable at current levels and also looks eerily similar to its last rebound.

Here’s the current scenario that also occurred in 2022/2023.

Bottom/base that was tested multiple times and held

Bullish divergence in both key momentum indicators – RSI and MACD

Price followed and broke above the 50-week moving average

Price was over 40% below its 200-week moving average — something to reverse

In 2023, shares rallied back. Will this situation resolve similarly?

The risk to the downside seems worth the possible reward up to the moving average. Whether or not the stock has turned it around completely is a different story, but for now, the tide seems to be shifting. 

The Bottom Line

These three stocks offer a mix of opportunity and caution. Be sure to add these stock to your ChartLists and watch the action unfold as the companies report earnings.

Even with a few short-lived roller coaster rides, the stock market had a strong week. Though there was some selling on Friday, the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) closed up over the week as a whole, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) closed lower by 0.07%.

Earnings season has started on a positive note, with big banks and Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) reporting better-than-expected earnings. Inflation remains relatively tame and the labor market remains resilient. This has helped fuel the stock market’s higher trajectory, with sectors such as Technology, Industrials, and Financials showing strong upward moves.  Even small-caps are hanging in there, although they have pulled back a bit.

This price action supports broad participation in the market. The S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index ($SPXEW) is also holding strong, trading above its 20-day exponential moving average. This tells us that participation isn’t limited to a handful of giants.

A Look Under the Hood

Overall growth still takes center stage and, so far, July is following its seasonality pattern. The seasonality chart below shows that in the last 10 years, the return in July was positive every year, with an average gain of 3.30%.

FIGURE 1. SEASONALITY CHART OF THE S&P 500. July is a strong month for the index, but August, September, and October paint a different picture.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Switching to a same-scale line chart (with a few years removed for clarity) you can see that even in 2020 and 2022, when the S&P 500 was in negative territory, July was still a strong month.

FIGURE 2. SAME-SCALE SEASONALITY CHART FOR S&P 500 FROM 2016 TO 2025. July is a strong month for stocks, although some years the latter part of the month has seen a decline.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Seasonality shifts notably as we move into late summer and early fall. That doesn’t guarantee a weak August, but it does argue for staying alert. It’s like driving into a stretch of winding road. You don’t slam the brakes, you just keep both hands on the wheel.

How to Track the Overall Market’s Performance

For a bird’s-eye view, the StockCharts Market Summary is your go-to page, but, after drilling down, one chart I often visit in my Market Analysis ChartList is the 3-year weekly chart of the S&P 500, with its Bullish Percent Index (BPI) and the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF S&P  500 WITH MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS. From a weekly perspective, the S&P 500 is still trending higher. Breadth indicators support the bullish move.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The trend is still higher, although the range between the open and close is relatively narrow. The BPI is above 50 but is flattening out, and the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average is also declining. Neither breadth indicator suggests we’ll see a massive selloff in the coming days.

The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) is low, and investor sentiment leans bullish (you can confirm this in the Sentiment panel of the Market Summary page).

Will Growth Lead For the Rest of the Year?

There are lots of variables that can change from now to the end of the year, from government policy to geopolitical tensions. These changes will be reflected in the market breadth and sentiment charts.

Tip: StockCharts members can download the Market Summary ChartPack to include the charts from the page in their ChartLists. You need to keep an eye on these charts for leading signals of change in the market’s price action.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

Stock Market Weekly Performance

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 44,342.19 (-0.07%)
• S&P 500: 6,296.79 (+0.59%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 20,895 (+1.51%)
• $VIX: 16.41 (+0.06%)
• Best performing sector for the week: Technology
• Worst performing sector for the week: Energy
• Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks:  AST Spacemobile, Inc.(ASTS); Nuscale Power Corp. (SMR); Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD); Avis Budget Group (CAR); Symbiotic, Inc. (SYM)

On the Radar Next Week

• June Home Sales
• June Durable Goods Orders
• Several Fed speeches
• Earnings from Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), AT&T Inc. (T), Intel Corp. (INTC), International Business Machines (IBM), and many more.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video, Mary Ellen spotlights the areas driving market momentum following Taiwan Semiconductor’s record-breaking earnings report. She analyzes continued strength in semiconductors, utilities, industrials, and AI-driven sectors, plus highlights new leadership in robotics and innovation-focused ETFs like ARK. From there, Mary Ellen breaks down weakness in health care and housing stocks, shows how to refine trade entries using hourly charts, and compares today’s rally to past market surges. Watch as she explores setups in silver and examines individual stocks like Nvidia, BlackRock, and State Street.

This video originally premiered on July 18, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.