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The Fed should absolutely stop talking about being “data dependent”. That’s so far from the truth. If they were data dependent, we’d have either seen a rate cut today or Fed Chief Powell would have been discussing one for the next meeting. Inflation reports since the last Fed meeting have been benign. Economic reports, on the other hand, have shown weakness and are pointing to the need for lower interest rates.

Powell was having none of it. During Wednesday’s press conference, one reporter asked the Fed Chief why the Fed was able to lower rates in December, despite knowing that tariffs and their potential impacts were on the way. I thought it was a great question, because Powell was using future tariff impacts on inflation as the primary reason for holding rates steady today. It was a perfect illustration of The Waffler at his best. When another reporter asked Powell about his frequent comments that the Fed is data dependent and that all current data points to the need for an interest rate cut, The Waffler noted the Fed needs to “look ahead”. So which is it? Is interest rate policy being guided by current data or by looking ahead?

This is a repeat of 2021 and 2022. Remember all the inflation news and how The Waffler said inflation was transitory. I guess he was looking ahead when he made those comments. He and his band of wafflers looked ahead and got it wrong. Then, inflation data poured in higher than expected for months and he finally started his data dependency talk.

The Fed has been late to every single party for 7 years now and running. They’re running late again. Eventually, Mr. Waffler will get it right and our major indices will all move to all-time highs. For now, though, the reason for any period of consolidation or, worse yet, selling can be laid at the doorstep of none other than The Waffler.

Personally, I’m exhausted by the constant “listen to what I say until I change it” approach to interest rate policy. Yes, we’ve had a 100-year pandemic and a resulting inflation problem that’s been worse than any since the 1970s. We’ve had two trade wars. I get it. But I firmly believe that the extreme volatility and the four (FOUR!!!!!!!) cyclical bear markets that we’ve endured since The Waffler became the Fed Chief is, in large part, his fault. He was sworn in on February 5th, 2018 and the stock market has been a roller coaster ever since:

Name the last time that the U.S. has seen 4 different cyclical bear markets, all starting from all-time highs, within a 7-year period. Start the Jeopardy music.

His mismanagement of interest rates didn’t start with the pandemic. I wrote an article in December 2018, during his first year, saying that his call for two rate hikes in 2019 would never happen. The next interest rate move? A cut several months later in 2019. Here’s the article I wrote back then as we bottomed in December 2018:

“How The Grinch Stole Christmas” Featuring Jerome Powell

No one has been wrong more than The Waffler.

Now maybe you’re sitting back and saying, “Tom, what’s the big deal? The tariffs are a threat. Why not just wait it out and be sure there are no lingering inflationary pressures?” Well, if you don’t mind the potential of a 5th cyclical bear market before we finally boot this guy to the curb, then I say GO FOR IT. Why try to hasten an economic meltdown when it’s unnecessary? Who believes anything The Waffler says? He said we were going to get two rate hikes in 2019. We got an interest rate cut instead. He said inflation was transitory in 2021. Then the Fed had to start raising rates at an absurd rate, because inflation skyrocketed and he waited way too long to turn hawkish. The stock market bottomed in June 2022 and was returning back towards all-time highs just prior to his infamous “more pain ahead” speech from Jackson Hole, WY on August 26th, 2022. Subsequent to that speech, the stock market fell precipitously for two months before once again finding a new bottom. That entire selling episode was caused solely by his irresponsible remarks.

And now where are we? Holding rates steady while the European Central Bank (ECB) has cut rates for 8 straight meetings. The Waffler will eventually get it right. Unfortunately, a lot of innocent investors and traders will continue to pay the price – until someone finally shows him the exit.

His term expiration cannot get here soon enough for me. GOOD RIDDANCE MR. WAFFLER!

Market Manipulation

I’ve written often about what I call the “legalized thievery” of market makers. The extreme volatility over the past several years has triggered market manipulation like we’ve never seen before. The good news is that once you understand how it works, trading the stock market gets a whole lot easier. At EarningsBeats.com we’ve timed exits out of the stock market almost perfectly, prior to the onset of cyclical bear markets. Missing out on 20%+ declines and then jumping back in at or near major bottoms increases stock market returns dramatically.

It’s time that everyone understands how the stock market works. On Saturday, June 28th, at 10:00am ET, we will be hosting a FREE webinar, “Trading the Truth: How Market Manipulation Creates Opportunity”. This event promises to be a real eye-opener, unless you’re already an EarningsBeats.com member (in which case you’ve already become a seasoned veteran regarding manipulation). Do you want to see big stock market declines before they happen? I will teach you how.

Seating is limited and this event will be packed, I can guarantee you that. PLEASE be sure to register NOW and save your spot. Again, there is NO COST. Registration is easy. Simply CLICK HERE to register and for more information.

(By the way, if you’re not available to attend LIVE on Saturday, June 28th, you should still register. All those who register will receive a copy of the recording after the event and it will be time stamped.)

Happy trading!

Tom

A Senate fiscal hawk doesn’t believe Republicans can hit their own self-imposed timeline to pass President Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill.’

Senate Republicans are racing against the clock to finish work on their version of the president’s colossal bill after the House GOP advanced its offering late last month. 

So far, each of the 10 Senate committees has unveiled a portion of the bill and are fine-tuning each chunk to conform with Senate rules and address concerns among varying factions in the conference.

Republican leaders are gunning to put the package on the floor next week, ahead of a scheduled recess for Independence Day, but Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., believes there is enough resistance against the bill to torpedo that timeline.  

‘I think we have enough people that are saying, ‘No, we’re not going to proceed to the bill prior to July 4.’’ he said. ‘We need more time, but I think our efforts now are concentrated.’

Johnson has long been pushing for far deeper cuts in the package, far beyond the goal of $1.5 trillion set in the House’s offering and the pursuit of $2 trillion in cuts in the Senate’s package to begin putting a major dent in the nation’s deficit.

The lawmaker’s remarks came during a press call where he debuted his 31-page report on the GOP’s quest to ram the president’s agenda through Congress. 

The report offered a variety of scenarios of the deficit and growth impacts the Republicans’ plan could have based on varying levels of compound annual growth rates that varied from over 2%, 3% and 4%. 

The report was meant to be a thumb in the face of the Congressional Budget Office’s findings on the bill and overall state of federal spending and deficits. But it also rejected the arguments made by Republican leaders and the White House in its pursuit of showing the reality of the nation’s fiscal health and the effect the ‘big, beautiful bill’ could have on it. 

Ron Johnson acknowledged the sentiments of House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Trump that the spending cuts achieved in the House product were unprecedented but countered that ‘we’ve faced an unprecedented level of spending increase’ since the pandemic.  

‘You can argue about the twigs and leaves on the forest floor, but I’m forcing everybody to take a step back and look at the look at the forest,’ Ron Johnson said. ‘It’s blazing, and we got to put this forest fire out.’

There are others with varying concerns, including the addition of a debt-ceiling hike and proposed changes to Medicaid, who could form a multi-faceted coalition to tank the bill.

Thune can only afford to lose three votes if he hopes to pass the bill, given that the nature of the budget reconciliation process skirts the filibuster and that Democrats have been iced out of the process thus far.

Ron Johnson noted that he hoped Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., wouldn’t put the full bill on the floor next week because ‘I really think it’ll be voted down.’

‘If we do vote it down, I don’t want anybody to interpret it as a slap in the face of either Leader Thune or President Trump,’ Ron Johnson said. ‘It’s just saying, ‘Guys, we need more time. The ball has been in the Senate court for two weeks.’

Johnson has been a proponent of breaking up the megabill into two or three chunks, rather than tackling it all in ‘one fell swoop.’ However, he acknowledged there would need to be some kind of mechanism that would allow lawmakers to have ‘at least two, if not three, bites at the apple.’

‘I understand this process is to kind of jam everybody, but let’s not do what Nancy Pelosi did and say, ‘Hey, got to pass this bill to figure out what’s in it,’’ he added. ‘Let’s know fully what’s in it. Let’s do as President Trump asked. … He wants the Senate to make a better bill.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

A judge slapped two men who pleaded guilty in connection with a voting fraud scheme with tougher prison sentences than the government had even requested.

‘In the court’s view, there are very few crimes in our federal code which are more serious than what you have committed,’ Judge Harvey Bartle III scolded former Millbourne Borough Council vice president Md Nurul Hasan, according to Votebeat. ‘What you have done is undermine our democratic process.’

Hasan pleaded guilty to charges after engaging in an election fraud scheme while he was running for mayor in 2021, but the plot to subvert the will of voters did not even work — Hasan still lost the mayoral race.

‘The defendants’ efforts to steal the election for defendant MD NURUL HASAN were ultimately unsuccessful, as defendant HASAN still lost the general election by a vote of approximately 165 to 138,’ the indictment declares.

According to a U.S. Attorney’s Office, Eastern District of Pennsylvania press release, ‘Hasan … pleaded guilty in April to all 33 charges against him — one count of conspiracy, 16 counts of giving false information in registering to vote, and 16 counts of fraudulent voter registration. He was sentenced to 36 months in prison, one year of supervised release, and a $3,300 special assessment.’

That prison time exceeds the government’s request for 18 to 24 months of imprisonment.

Hasan resigned from the council earlier this year after he entered his plea, according to the Delaware County Daily Times.

Former council member MD Rafikul Islam, who ‘pleaded guilty in April to all seven charges against him — one count of conspiracy, three counts of giving false information in registering to vote, and three counts of fraudulent voter registration,’ has been ‘sentenced to 12 months and one day in prison, one year of supervised release, $1,000 fine, and a $700 special assessment.’

That prison time exceeds the government’s request for zero to six months of imprisonment.

The federal judge with the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania was nominated by President George H.W. Bush in 1991, according to the Federal Judicial Center.

Md Munsur Ali — who is currently listed online as a member of the Millbourne Borough council — has also pleaded guilty in the case.

He is slated to be sentenced next week, according to the press release.

‘Ali, a member of the Millbourne Borough Council, pleaded guilty in April to all 25 charges against him — one count of conspiracy, 12 counts of giving false information in registering to vote, and 12 counts of fraudulent voter registration. He is scheduled to be sentenced on June 26,’ the release notes.

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A trio of key Trump administration officials — Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt — are in the midst of facing their first majorforeign policy test in their high-profile admin roles after Israel launched preemptive strikes on Iran and President Donald Trump weighs involving the U.S. in the conflict. 

The trio ascended to their roles with widespread fanfare among many MAGA conservatives, though many critics just months ago questioned if their prior careers prepared them for what was to come. The current flaring tensions with the Islamic Republic could be the final arbiter of which side was correct. 

‘President Trump leads from the front, and he has assembled a highly-qualified, world-class team that has helped him achieve numerous foreign policy accomplishments this term,’ White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told Fox Digital on Wednesday when asked about the trio’s test on Iran. ‘The American people trust the President to make the right decisions that keep them safe, and he has empowered his team to meet the moment and advance his foreign policy goals.’

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth 

Secretary Hegseth was one of Trump’s more controversial nominees among critics, as Democrat lawmakers and left-wing pundits slammed Hegseth as unqualified for the job.

‘This hearing now seems to be a hearing about whether or not women are qualified to serve in combat. And not about whether or not you are qualified to be secretary of defense,’ Illinois Democrat Sen. Tammy Duckworth said during Hegseth’s confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee in January. ‘And let me just say that the American people need a secretary of defense who’s ready to lead on day one. You are not that person.’ 

‘Is Pete Hegseth truly the best we have to offer?’ asked Democrat Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island, ranking member of the committee. 

Hegseth battled against claims he would lower previous standards for the secretary of Defense and that his vows to strengthen the military could be bluster once he was in the role and juggling oversight of the entire military. 

‘As I’ve said to many of you in our private meetings, when President Trump chose me for this position, the primary charge he gave me was to bring the warrior culture back to the Department of Defense,’ he said in his opening statement during his confirmation hearing. ‘He, like me, wants a Pentagon laser focused on warfighting, lethality, meritocracy, standards, and readiness. That’s it. That is my job.’ 

Hegseth was confirmed to the role after Vice President JD Vance issued a tie-breaking vote when Republican Sens. Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and Mitch McConnell joined Democrats in voting against the confirmation. 

Hegseth is an Ivy League graduate and former National Guard officer who was deployed to Iraq, Afghanistan and Guantanamo Bay during his military career, which began in 2003. He is also the recipient of a handful of military awards, including two Bronze Stars. He appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Wednesday and was pressed about the Israel–Iran conflict. 

‘They should have made a deal,’ Hegseth said. 

‘President Trump’s word means something — the world understands that,’ Hegseth said, referring to Trump’s repeated pressure on Iran to make a deal with the U.S. on its nuclear program as the conflict spiraled. 

‘And at the Defense Department, our job is to stand ready and prepared with options. And that’s precisely what we’re doing,’ Hegseth continued. 

He did not reveal if the U.S. would assist Israel in the ongoing strikes on Iran, but that the Pentagon is in the midst of preparing options for Trump. 

Any potential U.S. involvement in the strikes could pull the country into war against Iran. 

‘I may do it, I may not do it,’ Trump said Wednesday on whether he would order a strike on Iran. ‘I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do.’

Hegseth was among high-profile Trump officials who joined Trump in the White House’s Situation Room as the president and his team closely monitor the flaring conflict. 

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard 

Director of National Intelligence Gabbard is another Trump official who faced an intense confirmation hearing as critics argued she was unqualified for the role. 

Gabbard is a former Democrat who served in the U.S. House representing Hawaii from 2013 to 2021, a former member of the House Armed Services Committee and an Iraq war veteran. However, she had never held a formal position within the intelligence community before serving as director of national intelligence. 

Ahead of her confirmation, Gabbard’s critics slammed her as lacking the qualifications for the role, questioning her judgment over a 2017 meeting with then-Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, labeling her as sympathetic toward Russia, and balking at her previous favorable remarks related to former National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden.

‘Those who oppose my nomination imply that I am loyal to something or someone other than God, my own conscience and the Constitution of the United States,’ she said during her confirmation hearing. ‘Accusing me of being Trump’s puppet, Putin’s puppet, Assad’s puppet, a guru’s puppet, Modi’s puppet, not recognizing the absurdity of simultaneously being the puppet of five different puppet masters.’ 

She ultimately was confirmed in a 52–48 vote. 

Gabbard’s March testimony before the Senate dismissing concerns Iran was actively building a nuclear weapon is back under the nation’s microscope after Israel launched preemptive strikes on Iran. Israel’s strikes were in direct response to Israeli intelligence showing Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a short span of time. 

Trump was asked about Gabbard’s testimony while traveling back to Washington Monday evening from the G7 summit in Canada, and the president said he did not ‘care’ what Gabbard had to say in previous testimony, arguing he believes Iran is close to building a nuke. 

‘You’ve always said that you don’t believe Iran should be able to have a nuclear weapon,’ a reporter asked Trump while aboard Air Force One on Monday. ‘But how close do you personally think that they were to getting one?’ 

‘Very close,’ Trump responded.

‘Because Tulsi Gabbard testified in March that the intelligence community said Iran wasn’t building a nuclear weapon,’ the reporter continued. 

Trump shot back, ‘I don’t care what she said. I think they were very close to having one.’

When Gabbard appeared before the Senate Intelligence Committee in March, she delivered a statement on behalf of the intelligence community that included testimony that Iran was not actively building a nuclear weapon. 

‘Iran’s cyber operations and capabilities also present a serious threat to U.S. networks and data,’ Gabbard told the committee on March 26. 

The intelligence community ‘continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon, and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003,’ she said. She did add that ‘Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons.’

‘Iran will likely continue efforts to counter Israel and press for U.S. military withdrawal from the region by aiding, arming and helping to reconstitute its loose consortium of like-minded terrorist actors, which it refers to as its axis of resistance,’ she warned. 

However, as critics picked apart Gabbard’s past comments, the White House stressed that Gabbard and Trump are closely aligned on Iran. 

A White House official told Fox News Digital Tuesday afternoon that Trump and Gabbard are closely aligned and that the distinction being raised between Gabbard’s March testimony and Trump’s remarks that Iran is ‘very close’ to getting a nuclear weapon is one without a difference. 

The official noted that Gabbard underscored in her March testimony that Iran had the resources to potentially build a nuclear weapon. Her testimony in March reflected intelligence she received that Iran was not building a weapon at the time but that the country could do so based on the resources it amassed for such an endeavor. 

Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt 

Leavitt is the youngest press secretary in U.S. history, assuming the role at age 27. 

Some liberal critics, such as Joy Behar of ‘The View,’ attempted to discount her appointment when she was first tapped by Trump, and she has since emerged as a Trump administration firebrand during her routine White House press briefings. 

Though Leavitt has overwhelmingly been praised by supporters of the president for her defense of the administration and repeated fiery exchanges with left-wing media outlets during briefings, her tenure has overwhelmingly focused on domestic issues. 

Leavitt has kept the nation updated on issues such as mass deportation efforts, Trump’s ongoing list of executive orders affecting policies from transgender issues to electric vehicles, national tragedies such as the terror attack in Boulder targeting Jewish Americans and Trump’s wide-ranging tariff policy that affects foreign nations. 

Though the administration entered office with a war raging between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the ongoing war in Israel after Hamas attacked the country in 2023, the Israel–Iran conflict provides Leavitt with her first major international crisis that could include U.S. involvement. 

Leavitt’s highly anticipated first press briefing since Israel launched its preemptive strikes is scheduled for Thursday. 

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White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday that President Donald Trump will make a decision on the U.S. becoming involved in Israel’s conflict with Iran within the next two weeks. 

‘I have a message directly from the president, and I quote, ‘based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” Leavitt said at a White House briefing quoting Trump.

‘That’s a quote directly from the president for all of you today.’

‘He’s been very clear,’ she added. ‘Iran went for 60 days when he gave them that a 60-day warning without coming to the table. On day 61, Israel took action against Iran. And as I just told you from the president directly, he will make a decision within two weeks in.’

Leavitt said that there have been six rounds of direct and indirect negotiations with Iran. She said that talks continue but declined to provide details.

Asked if Trump would strike Iran if negotiations fail, Leavitt repeatedly said the president would make a decision ‘whether or not to go’ within the next two weeks.

WATCH: Karoline Leavitt pressed on ramifications of Trump’s Middle East foreign policy

When pressed about the reliability of that timeline, given previous delays on other global matters, Leavitt said the conflicts are different. 

‘President Trump inherited global instability from the last administration. He is always interested in diplomacy but not afraid to use strength,’ Leavitt said. 

Leavitt insisted that Iran cannot attain a nuclear bomb, a position repeatedly stated by Trump and Israel.

‘The president’s top priority is ensuring that Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon and providing peace and stability in the Middle East.’

Israel launched an attack on Iran on Friday, targeting its nuclear facilities and taking out some of the country’s top military generals. Iran has been respnseinf hitting Tel Aviv and other locations.

An Iranian missile barrage hit the Soroka Hospital on Thursday morning, injuring more than 70 people, Israel said.

This is a breaking news story and will be updated. 

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Israel’s military campaign in Iran has already produced ‘enormous achievements,’ according to experts tracking the conflict, with many citing the operation as the payoff for years of preparation, battlefield innovation and intelligence development.

Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a leading voice on U.S. policy toward Iran, called Israel’s progress ‘a resounding military win.’

‘They’ve actually dominated the Iranian military,’ Dubowitz told Fox News Digital. ‘They’ve taken out many senior military leaders, the Iranian Air Force, and a significant percentage of missile launchers and ballistic inventory.’

Still, Iran’s retaliation is taking a toll. On Thursday morning, an Iranian missile struck Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba and targeted several major cities, injuring hundreds.  Despite the heavy costs, military experts insist that the IDF continues to hold the upper hand, both tactically and strategically.

Comparing the scale of success to the Six-Day War, Dubowitz said, ‘It’s starting to look like 1967, when the Israelis eviscerated five Arab armies. It may take longer than six days, but they’re certainly on that trajectory.’

Hilla Hadad-Chmelnik, a strategist at ‘Mind Israel’ think tank and former CEO of the Ministry of Innovation, noted that the success is no accident — it is the result of ‘years of preparation in every aspect.’ From developing long-range strike capabilities to building an unparalleled intelligence apparatus and adapting operational doctrines from Gaza and Lebanon, she said the IDF’s current dominance is a product of both innovation and experience.

‘This is not a campaign someone decided to do six months ago,’ she said. ‘This is years of work — in intelligence, in weapons development, in defensive and offensive operations. The methods we tested against Hezbollah — striking command chains quickly and precisely — were studied, refined, and applied here.’

She pointed to lessons learned in Gaza, especially the importance of rapidly identifying and eliminating rocket launchers before strikes even begin. ‘We learned through hard fighting that you have to neutralize launchers, not just intercept the missiles. And that doctrine — developed in Gaza where targets are five minutes away — has now been adapted to Iran, with all the complexity that entails.’

Hadad-Chmelnik stressed that Israel’s control over Iranian skies is ‘stunning … the Air Force is flying over Iran day after day. Drones are holding the skies.’

Even with the heavy toll taken when Iran’s missiles get through, like the attack against Soroka hospital on Thursday, she credited the country’s defensive systems, like Iron Dome and David’s Sling — systems she helped develop — which intercepted missile salvos with over 90% effectiveness, even amid unprecedented barrages. ‘This is a war of a different scale, and yet the systems are holding,’ she said.

Dubowitz acknowledged that despite massive gains, one key target remains: the Fordow nuclear enrichment facility, buried under a mountain at a Revolutionary Guard base.

‘Israel has devastated Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. They’ve eliminated 14 senior nuclear scientists — the ‘Oppenheimers’ of Iran’s program,’ he said. ‘But Fordow remains. And if it’s left standing, Iran can rebuild.’

While Dubowitz clarified that he is not explicitly calling for U.S. military strikes, he said that ‘President Trump must ensure Fordow is fully dismantled — whether through a diplomatic agreement or, if Iran refuses, a targeted military intervention.’

He outlined three potential paths: ‘One, Iran shows up for a real deal and the program is dismantled. Two, Trump strikes Fordow. Three, Trump strikes and then negotiates. But either way, it has to end with Iran losing its nuclear weapons capability — not just temporarily, but permanently.’

Hadad-Chmelnik, believes Israel’s success has created an opportunity for the United States.

‘Thanks to the phenomenal achievements of the IDF, the situation is now very clear. If the U.S. were to join at this point, with Fordow as the main remaining target and most assets already degraded, it would not look like getting pulled into a quagmire,’ she said. ‘This is nothing like Ukraine or Afghanistan. There’s an actual path to decisive success, and that can change the political calculus in Washington.’

Dubowitz added that Israel’s offensive struck not only military and nuclear targets, but also Iran’s internal security infrastructure — including state media and the regime’s repressive arms. for that, he said, could open the door for future domestic unrest. ‘We can’t expect people to protest while missiles are falling. But if Israel continues striking the regime’s tools of repression, space may open for Iranians to return to the streets.’

Dubowitz, who has spent two decades warning of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, reflected on the moment with cautious hope. ‘I’m heartened to see the long arm of Israeli justice reach those responsible for such brutal aggression,’ he said. 

‘This may be a historic opportunity to truly end Iran’s nuclear threat, and perhaps even to support the Iranian people in reclaiming their future,’ he added, ‘There have been incredible achievements, but if Fordow is left standing by President Donald Trump, then it could end up being a Pyrrhic victory.’

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As hostilities continue to rage between Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran, U.S. Ambassador to the Jewish state Mike Huckabee has indicated work is underway to provide options for Americans who want to evacuate.

‘American Citizens wanting to evacuate Israel: Sign up at https://mytravel.state.gov/s/step to be on list. We’re working to get military, commercial, charter flights & cruise ships for evac. If you’re offered a seat, take it. Family in Israel? Tell them stay close to shelter & don’t ignore sirens!’ Huckabee noted in a post on X.

Like prior notices in recent days, the U.S. Embassy in Israel noted in a June 19 security alert it is directing all U.S. government employees and their families to keep sheltering in place.

‘We will alert the U.S. citizen community if there is additional information to share regarding departure options,’ the notice states. ‘If you are a U.S. citizen or Lawful Permanent Resident currently in Israel or the West Bank and seeking U.S. government assistance to depart, please complete this form so the Department of State can better assist you and provide you with timely updates: https://mytravel.state.gov/s/crisis-intake.’

The notice explained that, in the event the government provides assistance to Americans seeking to leave Israel, travelers would be expected to repay Uncle Sam but would not be required to pay up front before departing Israel. 

‘If the U.S. government provides departure assistance from Israel, options would most likely include travel to a nearby, safe country. We do not provide direct travel to the United States. You will be responsible for your onward travel after arriving in the nearby, safe country. Consular officers will be available to assist you on arrival with consular services, including a loan to repatriate to the United States if you wish to do so and qualify,’ the notice explains.

‘If the U.S. government provides departure assistance from Israel, you do not need to pay before you board, but you will be expected to sign a promissory note to repay the U.S. government. We will tell you the estimated amount you will be expected to repay before you travel. Pets cannot accompany you,’ it also notes.

Another security alert issued Thursday noted, ‘The Department of State is always planning for contingencies to assist with private U.S. citizens’ departure from crisis areas. We will alert the U.S. citizen community if there is additional information to share regarding departure options. U.S. citizens should enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program to receive the latest updates.’

President Donald Trump has not ruled out the possibility of American military intervention to help Israel stamp out Iranian efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

‘AMERICA FIRST means many GREAT things, including the fact that, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!’ he declared in a Truth Social post Monday.

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Several Boeing 747s have been spotted on radar leaving China for Iran over the last week, according to reports, sparking concerns that the CCP is helping the Middle Eastern nation transport cargo or people out of the country as Israel continues to strike the country’s nuclear facilities. 

Starting on June 14th, FlightRadar24 shows that at least five flights traveled from China to Iran, and The Telegraph reported that the ‘mystery transport planes’ had flown westward along northern China before crossing into Kazakhstan, south through Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and then fell off radar as they approached Iran. 

Additionally, the report indicated that the flights had a final destination of Luxembourg but don’t appear to have ever crossed into European airspace.

Some experts have speculated that these types of planes are typically used for transport and could be evidence of China aiding its longtime ally Iran during the conflict with Israel, although Fox News Digital has not independently confirmed the nature of the flights. 

‘I think it’s important to remember what the relationship is, forty-three percent of China’s oil and gas comes from the Middle East, a large volume of that from Iran,’ Robert Greenway, director of the Heritage Foundation’s Center for National Defense, told ‘The Ingraham Angle’ on Wednesday night. 

‘It likes to buy sanctioned oil below market value, and that fuels the Chinese economy and also its military ambitions, and so, that’s the central relationship. They’ve been relatively quiet – in fact, extremely quiet – about the current conflict and coming to Iran’s assistance. We also know that a large fire in Bandar-Bas port was Chinese solid propellant for missiles that exploded and created a tremendous amount of damage just about a month ago. I think it’s unlikely to see Chinese arms shipments under the circumstances to Iran. It’s more likely that Iran may be removing material or personnel or regime valuables to safe haven in light of the conflict. I think that’s probably the extent to which China is willing to accept the risk associated with the current circumstances.’

In 2021, Fox News Digital reported that Tehran and Beijing signed a 25-year cooperation deal amidst great fanfare in the Iranian capital. University of Tehran Professor Mohammad Marandi, who is close to the regime, told Fox News that it is about much more than what’s on paper. 

‘This strategic partnership is important because it allows Iran and China to build a roadmap for long-term relations that will be much more fruitful,’ he said. ‘It’s also a signal being sent to the United States. The more the U.S. tries to isolate Iran and China, the more it causes countries like Iran and China to move more closely to each other.’

Some have cast doubt on the flights representing a nefarious connection between the two nations, including Atlantic Council fellow Tuvia Gering who posted on X that an aviation expert told him the flights are ‘nothing to write home about.’ 

‘There are regular cargo flights by the Luxembourg-based freight company from several locations in China to Europe, with a stopover in Turkmenistan (just a few dozen kilometers from the Iranian border),’ Gering wrote. 

‘Some flight tracking websites lose the tracking signal shortly before landing and continue to show a projected route that appears to enter Iranian airspace. The sites clearly indicate that this is an estimated path; checking the aircraft tail numbers shows they take off again from Turkmenistan a few hours later, and reviewing the flight history of these routes shows they always land in Ashgabat and do not continue into Iran. All this is before even considering the obvious logic that a major European cargo company is highly unlikely to be the channel through which China transfers its super-advanced, top-secret strategic weapons to Iran.’

Tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated significantly in recent days, with the United States contemplating whether it will get directly involved in striking Iran. President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and he is expected to meet with national security and defense leaders again on Thursday. 

‘Yes, I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do. I can tell you this that Iran’s got a lot of trouble, and they want to negotiate,’ Trump said Wednesday. 

‘And I said, why didn’t you negotiate with me before all this death and destruction? Why didn’t you go? I said to people, why didn’t you negotiate with me two weeks ago? You could have done fine. You would have had a country. It’s very sad to watch this,’ the president added.

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U.S. troops based in the Middle East could face increased attacks in the coming days or weeks, should the U.S. decide to become involved in the growing conflict between Israel and Iran. 

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday that President Donald Trump will make a decision in the next two weeks whether the U.S. will move forward and strike Iranian nuclear facilities. 

‘Yes, I may do it. I may not do it,’ Trump said Wednesday. ‘I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do. I can tell you this, that Iran’s got a lot of trouble, and they want to negotiate.’ 

Meanwhile, Iran has issued a clear message: Doing so will come with consequences. Iran has cautioned that the U.S. will suffer if it chooses to become involved in the conflict, and previously issued retaliatory strikes against bases where U.S. troops were housed after the U.S. killed a top Iranian general in 2020. 

‘The Americans should know that any U.S. military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage,’ Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday, according to state media. 

The Pentagon has bolstered its forces in the Middle East in light of the growing tensions, including sending the aircraft carrier Nimitz from the South China Sea to join the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson in the Middle East. 

The Pentagon referred Fox News Digital to Department of Defense spokesperson Sean Parnell’s Monday statement that American forces remain in a ‘defensive posture’ and Hegseth’s announcement Monday that more forces had been deployed to the Middle East. 

‘Protecting U.S. forces is our top priority and these deployments are intended to enhance our defensive posture in the region,’ Hegseth said Monday. 

Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., pressed Hegseth Wednesday for details regarding what contingency plans are in place from drones amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Three U.S. service members were killed in an unmanned drone attack in Jordan in January 2024 that was attributed to an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-backed militia. 

‘I have no assurance that we have the capacity to safeguard against a swarm of small, lightweight, slow-moving drones that are, in my view, our major vulnerability, and right now, if we engaged in the Iran conflict, would put us and U.S. personnel at risk there,’ Blumenthal said Wednesday. 

The U.S. currently has more than 40,000 U.S. troops and Defense Department civilians stationed in the Middle East. Here are some of the countries where U.S. military personnel are based and could face heightened threats:

Iraq 

Roughly 2,500 U.S. military personnel are stationed in Iraq as of September 2024, and are assigned to Combined Joint Task Force–Operation Inherent Resolve, according to the Department of Defense. Their role in Iraq involves advising and supporting partner forces in the region to defeat ISIS. 

Following the 2020 U.S. airstrike that killed Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Iraq, Iranian forces launched ballistic missile attacks at Erbil Air Base and Ain al-Asad Air Base in Iraq, where U.S. troops are stationed. 

Jordan

About 350 U.S. troops are deployed to Jordan at a remote military base known as Tower 22, according to the Department of Defense. 

In January 2024, three soldiers were killed and another 40 were injured when a one-way uncrewed aerial system struck Tower 22. 

In May, ten New York Army National Guard soldiers were awarded the Purple Heart for the injuries they suffered in the attack. The Pentagon blamed an Iranian-backed militia for the attack. 

Kuwait

The U.S. currently operates five bases in Kuwait: Camp Arifjan, Ali Al Salem Air Base, Camp Buehring, Camp Patriot and Camp Spearhead. 

As of January, approximately 13,500 U.S. troops are based there and primarily are focused on eliminating the threat of ISIS, according to the U.S. State Department. 

Qatar 

Qatar hosts U.S. Central Command’s forward headquarters at Al Udeid Air Base, home of the Air Force’s 379th Air Expeditionary Wing, which Air Forces Central Command has dubbed the ‘largest and most diverse wing’ within the command. The wing includes airlift, aerial refueling intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, and aeromedical evacuation assets, according to Air Forces Central Command. 

Bahrain 

Naval Forces Central Command is based out of Manama, Bahrain, where it spearheads a coalition of regional and international partners that are focused on supporting task forces targeting counterterrorism, counter-piracy and maritime security in the region. 

The Navy first established a base in Bahrain in 1971, which has hosted Naval Forces Central Command since 1983. 

United Arab Emirates

Just 20 miles south of the United Arab Emirates capital of Abu Dhabi is Al Dhafra Air Base, home of the Air Force’s 380th Air Expeditionary Wing. 

The wing includes unmanned aircraft including the RQ-4 Global Hawk, a remotely piloted surveillance aircraft. 

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Army Gen. Michael ‘Erik’ Kurilla is no stranger to conflict, especially in the Middle East. 

Two decades ago as a lieutenant colonel, he was at the front lines of combat fighting off insurgents in Mosul, Iraq, while leading the 1st Battalion, 24th Infantry Regiment. The battalion’s mission was to conduct security patrols and coordinate offensive attacks against anti-Iraqi insurgents targeting Iraqi security forces and Iraqi police stations. 

During Kurilla’s tenure leading the battalion, more than 150 soldiers earned the Purple Heart for injuries, and the battalion lost at least a dozen soldiers, The New York Times reported in August 2005. 

‘There will always be somebody willing (to) pick up an AK-47 and shoot Americans,’ Kurilla told The New York Times in August 2005. 

Kurilla did not complete that deployment unscathed. Later, in August 2005, Kurilla found himself caught in a Mosul, Iraq, firefight, where he sustained multiple gunshot wounds, earning him a Bronze Star with valor and one of his two Purple Heart awards. 

Now, Kurilla is facing another battle as the commander of U.S. Central Command, or CENTCOM, serving as the top military officer overseeing U.S. military forces based in the Middle East.

That means Kurilla, who attended the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, is at the forefront of military operations as President Donald Trump contemplates whether to engage in military strikes against Iran’s nuclear sites. 

CENTCOM is one of the U.S. military’s 11 combatant commands and encompasses 21 nations in the Middle East in its area of operations, including Iraq and Afghanistan. 

Those familiar with Kurilla claim he’s the perfect person for the job, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth described Kurilla as an uplifting leader. 

‘General Kurilla is a bold, dynamic, and inspiring leader who strikes fear into the hearts of America’s enemies,’ Hegseth said in a statement Thursday to Fox News Digital. ‘He’s a warrior through and through who always puts his country, mission, and troops first. It has been an honor to serve alongside him in defense of our great nation.’

Retired Army Gen. Mark Milley, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in 2022 when Biden nominated Kurilla for the role that Kurilla is the ideal CENTCOM leader. 

‘If there ever was some way to feed into a machine the requirements for the perfect leader of CENTCOM — the character traits, the attributes, the experiences, the knowledge and the personality that would be ideal — that machine would spit out Erik Kurilla,’ Milley said in 2022, according to the Defense Department. ‘Erik’s got vast experience in combat (and) on staffs.

‘He’s a visionary, he’s a thinker and he’s a doer,’ Milley said. ‘He understands both the physical and human terrain and is able to identify root causes of problems and develop systems. He’s not at all a linear thinker. He’s actually a very gifted problem-solver.’

Retired Marine Corps Gen. Frank McKenzie, Kurilla’s CENTCOM predecessor, voiced similar sentiments. 

‘I can’t think of anybody better qualified to lead CENTCOM’s next chapter than Erik Kurilla,’ McKenzie said in 2022, according to the Pentagon. ‘He’s no stranger to the CENTCOM (area of operations). He’s no stranger to the headquarters.’

Notable figures who’ve previously filled the job leading CENTCOM include former defense secretaries, retired Gen. Jim Mattis, who served during Trump’s first term, and retired Gen. Lloyd Austin, who served during former President Joe Biden’s administration.

Fox News Digital reached out to CENTCOM, McKenzie and Milley for comment and did not get a response by the time of publication. 

The region is familiar territory for Kurilla. The general spent a decade between 2004 and 2014 overseeing conventional and special operations forces during consecutive tours in the Middle East that fell under the CENTCOM purview. 

Additionally, Kurilla has served in key CENTCOM staff and leadership positions, including serving as the command’s chief of staff from August 2018 to September 2019. Prior to leading CENTCOM, the general also commanded the 2nd Ranger Battalion, the 75th Ranger Regiment, the 82nd Airborne Division and the XVIII Airborne Corps, according to his official bio. 

In addition to deploying to Iraq as part of Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Inherent Resolve, he deployed to Afghanistan with Operation Enduring Freedom. Other awards he’s earned include the Combat Infantryman Badge, awarded to Army infantry or special forces officers who’ve encountered active ground combat. 

Kurilla, who the Senate confirmed to lead CENTCOM in February 2022 and will exit the role later in 2025, told lawmakers on the House Armed Services Committee June 10 that, since October 2023, when Hamas first attacked Israel, American service members have faced increased threats in the region. 

Specifically, he said, U.S. troops have come under direct fire by nearly 400 unmanned aerial systems, 350 rockets, 50 ballistic missiles and 30 cruise missiles launched by Iranian-backed groups. 

He said CENTCOM has encountered the ‘most highly kinetic period than at any other time in the past decade.’

‘We have been at the brink of regional war several times with the first state-on-state attacks between Iran and Israel in their history,’ Kurilla told lawmakers. ‘In the Red Sea, Houthi attempts to kill Americans operating in the Red Sea necessitated an aggressive response to protect our sailors and mariners and restore freedom of navigation. This is while Tehran is continuing to progress towards a nuclear weapons program — threatening catastrophic ramifications across the region and beyond.’ 

As a result, Kurilla said CENTCOM is prepared to use military force to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed state. Kurilla said he has provided Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth a host of options to employ to eliminate the threat of a nuclear Iran. 

Since Kurilla’s testimony, tensions have escalated even further in the Middle East after Israel kicked off massive airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear sites that Israel claims have killed several high-ranking military leaders. Likewise, Iran also launched strikes against Israel as the two ramp up military campaigns against one another.

Trump is still navigating whether the U.S. will conduct direct strikes against Iran. Trump told reporters he may order strikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites and that the ‘next week is going to be very big.’

‘Yes, I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do,’ Trump said. ‘I can tell you this, that Iran’s got a lot of trouble, and they want to negotiate.’ 

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