Bullet briefing — MP shares rise, Barrick and Discovery talk Hemlo

MP Materials signs deal with Apple

MP Materials (NYSE:MP) was in the headlines after announcing a US$500 million partnership with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). The companies said on Tuesday (July 15) that they have entered into a definitive long-term agreement through which MP will supply Apple with rare earth magnets.

The magnets will be made in the US, and will use 100 percent recycled materials.

The news follows last week’s new partnership between MP and the US Department of Defense. A key component is a 10 year deal that sets up a price floor commitment of US$110 per kilogram for MP’s neodymium-praeseodymium products, a move geared at creating supply chain stability.

The defense department will also become MP’s largest shareholder, buying US$400 million worth of preferred stock and receiving warrants to purchase additional common stock.

Shares of MP spiked on the news and have stayed high since then.

MP describes itself as the only fully integrated rare earths producer in the US, and the moves from Apple and the defense department reflect a growing push to diversify away from China.

Investors are taking note of the rare earths opportunity too. Here’s how Rick Rule of Rule Investment Media described the sector’s potential in a recent interview:

If you want a gamier suggestion, I really like the high-quality rare earths space. Nobody understands it, nobody cares. There are probably 50 pretenders in rare earths, but there are two or three speculations that, while you could easily lose 30 percent of your money, you could also easily enjoy 20 baggers.

Watch the interview for more, including Rule’s favorite ASX-listed mining stocks.

Barrick, Discovery Silver in Hemlo talks

Major miner Barrick Mining (TSX:ABX,NYSE:B) is reportedly looking to sell Hemlo, its last remaining Canadian gold mine, to Discovery Silver (TSX:DSV,OTCQX:DSVSF).

According to Bloomberg, the companies are in ‘advanced talks’ about a deal.

Located in Ontario, Hemlo’s 2025 output is forecast at 140,000 to 160,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of US$1,600 to US$1,700 per ounce.

The move to sell Hemlo comes as Barrick hones in on tier-one assets and broadens its focus. It changed its name from Barrick Gold to Barrick Mining earlier this year, with its latest divestment being the sale of its 50 percent stake in the Alaska-based Donlin gold project for US$1 billion in cash.

For its part, Discovery Silver has been on an expansion path, closing its acquisition of Newmont’s (TSX:NGT,NYSE:NEM) Porcupine complex this past April.

In addition to Porcupine, Discovery holds the Cordero silver project in Mexico.

Investor Insight

Osisko Metals’ high-quality copper and zinc assets present a compelling investment opportunity amid a rapidly expanding critical and base metals market. North America is continuing to prioritize domestic mineral supply chains, and Osisko Metals is well-positioned with its two brownfield, past-producing assets in Canada: the Gaspé Copper project and the Pine Point zinc-lead project.

Overview

Osisko Metals (TSXV:OM,OTC:OMZNF,FRANKFURT: 0B51) is an exploration and development company focusing on two base metal assets in Canada – Gaspé Copper and Pine Point – targeting copper and zinc, both critical minerals necessary for the global transition to clean energy. These assets are past-producing, brownfield projects of significant potential for future production.

The Gaspé Copper project in Québec has a rapid development plan to begin mining the indicated resource of 824 million tons (Mt) of ore grading 0.34 percent copper equivalent. As the gap between available copper supply and growing demand widens, Osisko Metals is well-positioned to help create and strengthen a domestic supply chain for the North American market.

The company’s Pine Point zinc-lead project in the Northwest Territories contains an indicated mineral resource estimate of 49.5 Mt at 4.22 percent zinc and 1.49 percent lead, in addition to significant inferred resources. Zinc is a necessary mineral for the clean energy transition and has important applications throughout the manufacturing industry. This widespread use of zinc has analysts cautioning about a looming supply shortage.

A preliminary economic assessment (PEA) completed in 2022 indicates the Pine Point project has the potential to become a world-class, high-grade zinc asset, with an after-tax net present value (NPV) of C$602 million and internal rate of return (IRR) of 25 percent. A feasibility study is now fully underway, and is expected to be completed in 2025.

In February 2023, Osisko Metals announced a C$100-million investment agreement with Appian Natural Resources Fund III for a joint venture on the Pine Point project. The agreement includes C$75.3 million of funding for the project and up to C$24.7 million in cash payments to Osisko Metals. In February 2024, Osisko Metals sold an additional 5 percent ownership interest in Pine Point Mining to a subsidiary of Appian for approximately C$8.33 million. Appian now has the right to earn up to 65 percent of the project, with Osisko Metals retaining 35 percent.

Pine Point Mining and the Town of Hay River have also signed a memorandum of understanding to seize opportunities for long-term sustainable growth for Hay River through the development and operations of the Pine Point mining project.

Led by a management team with a wide range of expertise throughout the natural resources industry and experience in geology, exploration, corporate finance and corporate administration, Osisko Metals is well-poised to become a world-class supplier of base metals.

Company Highlights

• Osisko Metals (OM) is focused on becoming a significant base metals producer by bringing two past-producing Canadian brownfield assets back into production: the Gaspé Copper project in Québec and the Pine Point zinc-lead project in the Northwest Territories.
• OM’s 100-percent-owned Gaspé Copper project is advancing rapidly with a fully funded 110,000-metre 2025 drill program and the goal of converting and expanding its large-scale NI 43-101 resource base.
• Copper Mountain hosts the largest undeveloped copper asset in Eastern North America, with an in-pit indicated resource of 824 million tonnes (Mt) grading 0.34 percent copper equivalent (CuEq) and an inferred resource of 670 Mt grading 0.38 percent CuEq. The resource contains 4.91 billion pounds of copper, 274 million pounds of molybdenum, and 46 million ounces of silver.
• The Pine Point project has the potential to become a top-ten global zinc producer, supported by updated 2024 resource estimates and a positive PEA. It is operated through a joint venture with Appian Natural Resources Fund III, which has the right to earn up to 65 percent of the project.
• A C$100-million investment agreement with Appian includes C$75.3 million in project funding and allows for a staged increase in Appian’s ownership. Osisko Metals retains a 35 percent interest.
• The 2022 PEA for Pine Point returned an after-tax IRR of 25 percent and an NPV (8 percent) of C$602 million, with clean, high-grade zinc and lead concentrates appealing to global smelters.
• A highly experienced management team with a successful track record of discovery, development and value creation is leading Osisko Metals’ transformation into a leading North American base metals developer.

Key Projects

Gaspé Copper Project

The Gaspé Copper project in Québec is among the most significant copper development projects in eastern North America. Osisko Metals completed the 100-percent acquisition of Gaspé Copper in July 2023 and has since launched a fully funded, 110,000-metre drill program. Québec is consistently ranked as a top-tier mining jurisdiction with supportive permitting processes and access to infrastructure.

Project Highlights:

• Significant Mineral Resource Estimate: The current NI 43-101 mineral resource estimate (effective November 2024) outlines an in-pit indicated resource of 824 Mt grading 0.34 percent copper equivalent and an inferred resource of 670 Mt grading 0.38 percent copper equivalent. Contained metals include 4.91 billion pounds of copper, 274 million pounds of molybdenum, and 46 million ounces of silver.
• Prolific Past Production: The historic Gaspé mine produced more than 141 Mt at 0.9 percent copper between 1955 and 1999 through both underground and open-pit mining. The site has undergone over C$150 million in reclamation, creating a well-positioned brownfield development opportunity.
• Robust Infrastructure: The site benefits from year-round road access, on-site hydroelectric power, proximity (under 100 km) to a deep-sea port in Gaspé, and remaining legacy infrastructure, including oxide stockpiles, administration buildings and a water treatment facility.
• 2025 Drill Program: The 110,000-metre drill campaign initiated in February 2025 targets both infill and expansion zones. Goals include upgrading inferred resources, extending mineralization up to 250 meters below the current pit shell, testing areas toward Needle East Mountain, and better delineating high-grade skarn zones (grading 0.5 to 3.0 percent copper). Recent results include:
  • Drill hole 30-1090 – 279.0 meters averaging 0.49 percent copper and 108.0 meters averaging 0.84 percent copper
    Drill hole 30-1075 – 258.0 meters averaging 0.33 percent copper including 15.6 meters averaging 1.47 percent copper

• Wide zones of new mineralization intersected southeast of the Copper Mountain pit, including skarn-hosted copper zones supporting potential for future resource expansion

• Copper Mountain Updated MRE: The latest resource estimate (Fall 2024) reflects a 53 percent increase in copper-equivalent content in the indicated category and a 100-fold increase in the inferred category compared to prior reports. A high-grade sub-resource of 520 Mt grading 0.54 percent copper equivalent has also been identified at higher cut-off grades.
• Acquisition of New Claims: In December 2024, Osisko Metals acquired 199 additional mineral claims adjacent to the Gaspé Copper property, expanding the project’s exploration footprint in a highly prospective area.

Pine Point Zinc-Lead Project

The Pine Point asset in the Northwest Territories is a brownfield site with legacy infrastructure and a clear path toward redevelopment. The site is supported by an on-site hydroelectric substation, paved access roads, and proximity to rail and port infrastructure.

Project Highlights:

• Joint Venture: Pine Point Mining, the project operator, is governed under a joint venture between Osisko Metals and Appian Natural Resources Fund III. The C$100-million agreement includes C$75.3 million in project funding and additional cash payments. In February 2024, Osisko Metals sold an additional 5 percent interest to Appian for C$8.33 million. Appian may earn up to 65 percent ownership; Osisko Metals retains 35 percent.
• High-grade Clean Concentrates: The project is expected to produce exceptionally clean zinc and lead concentrates, as confirmed by recent metallurgical testing. XRT sorting and flotation achieved recoveries of 87 percent for zinc and 93 percent for lead. Low deleterious element levels make Pine Point’s product highly attractive to smelters seeking premium concentrates.
• Promising Economics: The 2022 PEA outlines an average annual life-of-mine production of 329 million pounds of zinc and 141 million pounds of lead. It projects an after-tax NPV (8 percent) of C$602 million and an IRR of 25 percent. Estimated dewatering volumes were reduced by 30 percent compared to the 2020 PEA.
• 2024 Updated Mineral Resource Estimate:

• Indicated: 49.5 Mt grading 4.22 percent zinc and 1.49 percent lead (5.52 percent zinc equivalent), containing 4.6 billion lbs of zinc and 1.6 billion lbs of lead
• Inferred: 8.3 Mt grading 4.18 percent zinc and 1.69 percent lead (5.64 percent zinc equivalent), containing 0.7 billion lbs of zinc and 0.3 billion lbs of lead
• East Mill, Central, and North zones collectively hold ~36.2 Mt of indicated resources grading 5.22 percent zinc equivalent

• Community Support: Pine Point Mining Limited has secured support through collaboration agreements with Deninu K’ue First Nation and the Northwest Territory Métis Nation, and continues to work under a 2017 exploration agreement with K’atl’odeeche First Nation. A memorandum of understanding was signed in November 2024 with the Town of Hay River to promote long-term economic benefits and local participation.

Management Team

Robert Wares – Chief Executive Officer

A professional geologist with over 35 years of experience, Robert Wares co-founded Osisko Mining and led the discovery of the Canadian Malartic mine. He is a co-recipient of the PDAC’s “Prospector of the Year” (2007) and serves on the board of Brunswick Exploration.

John Burzynski – Executive Chairman

John Burzynski was CEO of Osisko Mining and led the discovery and sale of the Windfall project to Gold Fields for C$2.2 billion. He also co-founded Osisko Gold Royalties and helped develop Canadian Malartic. He is a fellow of the Royal Canadian Geographical Society, and is a co-recipient of the PDAC’s “Prospector of the Year” (2007)

Don Njegovan – President

Don Njegovan has over 30 years of experience in mining and capital markets. Formerly COO at Osisko Mining, he has also served as managing director, global mining at Scotiabank, and sits on the board of Cornish Metals.

Blair Zaritsky – Chief Financial Officer

BA CPA with over 20 years of experience, Blair Zaritsky was previously CFO of Osisko Mining. He has extensive audit and financial management experience with public companies listed on Canadian exchanges.

Amanda Johnston – Vice-president, Finance

Amanda Johnston is a CPA with more than two decades in the mining and audit sectors. She previously served as VP finance at Osisko Mining and is currently a director of Metalla Royalty & Streaming.

Alexandria Marcotte – Vice-president, Exploration

A registered P.Geo. in Ontario, Alexandria Marcotte has 15+ years of international experience in senior geological roles. She holds an Honours B.Sc. in Geology and an MBA from Schulich School of Business and currently serves as a director of Angel Wing Metals.

Lili Mance – Vice-president & Corporate Secretary

Lili Mance has 30 years of legal, compliance, and governance experience in the resource and financial sectors. She served as corporate secretary at Osisko Mining and is a long-standing member of the Governance Professionals of Canada.

Ann Lamontagne – Vice-president, Environment & Sustainable Development

A civil engineer with a Ph.D. in mining environment, Ann Lamontagne brings over 25 years of environmental consulting and permitting expertise, including work with Nouveau Monde Graphite and Troilus Gold.

Killian Charles – Strategic Advisor

President and CEO of Brunswick Exploration, Killian Charles previously led corporate development at Osisko Metals and worked as a mining analyst. He holds a degree in Earth & Planetary Sciences from McGill University.

Luc Lessard – Technical Advisor

Luc Lessard is a mining engineer with over 30 years of experience in construction and operation of major mines. He is CEO of Falco Resources and COO of Osisko Development, and played key roles in building Canadian Malartic.

Markets and commodities react

In Canada, equity markets were mostly positive this week. The S&P/TSX Composite Index (INDEXTSI:OSPTX) gained 1 percent to close at 27,314.01 on Friday (July 18) and set a new all-time high during the week. The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (INDEXTSI:JX) fared even better this week, gaining 2.53 percent to 797.75. However, the CSE Composite Index (CSE:CSECOMP) fell 2.6 percent to 126.84.

As for US equity markets, the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:INX) gained 0.66 percent to close Friday at 6,296.78 and the Nasdaq 100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) climbed 1.35 percent to 23,065.47, with both also setting new record highs during the week. On the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) fell 0.1 percent to 44,342.20.

In precious metals, the gold price rose 0.78 percent over the week to US$3,349.66 by Friday at 5 p.m. EDT. Meanwhile, the silver price continued to trade near 11-year highs, climbing 3.13 percent on the week to US$38.15 per ounce.

In base metals, copper ended the week were it started out, but was still trading near all time highs at US$5.60 per pound. The S&P GSCI (INDEXSP:SPGSCI) posted a 1.26 percent gain to finish the week at 551.61.

Top Canadian mining stocks this week

How did mining stocks perform against this backdrop?

Take a look at this week’s five best-performing Canadian mining stocks below.

Stock data for this article was retrieved at 4 p.m. EDT on Friday using TradingView’s stock screener. Only companies trading on the TSX, TSXV and CSE with market capitalizations greater than C$10 million are included. Mineral companies within the non-energy minerals, energy minerals, process industry and producer manufacturing sectors were considered.

1. Altima Energy (TSXV:ARH)

Weekly gain: 97.96 percent
Market cap: C$43.99 million
Share price: C$0.97

Altima Energy is a light oil and natural gas exploration and development company with operations in Alberta, Canada.

Its primary asset is the Richdale property in Central Alberta. The property consists of five producing light oil wells and sits on 5,920 acres of long-term reserves. The property hosts combined proved and probable reserves of just under 2 billion barrels of oil equivalent, with a pre-tax net present value of C$25.8 million.

The company also owns two wells at its Twinning light oil site near Nisku, seven producing wells at its Red Earth property in Northern Alberta and two multi-zone wells at its Chambers Ferrier liquid gas production property.

Shares in Altima started to gain after it released news on July 8 that it had completed a private placement for proceeds of up to C$5.5 million. Under the terms of the deal, the company will issue 20 million units at C$0.275 per unit, which each include one common share and one warrant allowing the holder to purchase a common share for C$0.40.

The company said that part of the proceeds would be used to complete field upgrades at its Red Earth and Richdale properties.

2. Kirkland Lake Discoveries (TSXV:KLDC)

Weekly gain: 81.82 percent
Market cap: C$11.26 million
Share price: C$0.10

Kirkland Lake Discoveries is a gold and copper exploration company focused on projects in its district-scale land package located in the Kirkland Lake area of Ontario, Canada.

Its holdings span an area of approximately 38,000 hectares in the Abitibi Greenstone Belt that has been host to past-producing gold and copper mines. It is broadly divided into KL West and KL East, which contain the Goodfish-Kirana and Lucky Strike gold projects, respectively, among others.

On April 29, the company announced it entered into a mining option agreement with Val-d’Or Mining (TSXV:VZZ) to acquire a 100 percent interest in the Winnie Lake and Amikougami properties, as well as mining claim purchase agreements with two vendors to acquire further claims around the Winnie Lake Pluton. The properties expand KL West’s southern portion.

Following the agreement, the company conducted grab samples at the Winnie Lake property and reported the results on July 9. One grab sample collected near the historic Winnie Shaft zone yielded grades of 1.6 grams per metric ton (g/t) gold, 28.2 g/t silver, 5.7 percent copper, 5.3 percent zinc and 1.65 g/t tellurium.

The company also discovered a quartz-veined intrusive outcrop 150 meters west of the shaft during field prospecting, with samples displaying characteristics of magmatic-hydrothermal copper-gold systems, including visible malachite and strong potassic alteration.

Additionally, Kirkland Lake reported it has received full drill permits for Winnie Lake and plans to initiate activities at the site this summer, focusing on the newly defined zones.

3. Happy Creek Minerals (TSXV:HPY)

Weekly gain: 70 percent
Market cap: C$10.33 million
Share price: C$0.085

Happy Creek Minerals is an exploration company focused on advancing a portfolio of assets in British Columbia, Canada.

Its primary focus has been on its Fox tungsten property located in the South Caribou region of the province. It comprises 135.9 square kilometers of mineral tenure and hosts deposits containing tungsten, molybdenum, zinc, indium, gold and silver. In total, 21,125 meters of exploration drilling have been carried out at the site, primarily in shallow holes, for resource definition.

Happy Creek’s share price began climbing Tuesday after the company announced a non-brokered private placement to raise gross proceeds of up to C$3.25 million in flow-through units at C$0.07 per share and non-flow-through units at C$0.05 per share.

The following day, Happy Creek upsized the offering to C$3.75 million.

The company plans to use the gross proceeds for drilling, exploration and development at Fox, as well as other exploration work in the Caribou.

4. Camino Minerals (TSXV:COR)

Weekly gain: 56.52 percent
Market cap: C$13.5 million
Share price: C$0.36

Camino Minerals is a copper exploration and development company with a portfolio of projects in Chile and Peru.

Earlier in 2025, the company shifted its focus to its newly acquired, construction-ready Puquois copper project in Chile.

In October 2024, Camino entered a definitive agreement to create a 50/50 joint venture with Nittetsu Mining (TSE:1515) that would acquire Cuprum Resources, which owns the Puquios project. The partners completed the acquisition April 17 and said they would turn their attention to project financing.

On March 17, Camino filed a prefeasibility study for the project. The study results demonstrate a post-tax net present value of US$118 million, with an internal rate of return of 23.4 percent and a payback period of 3.1 years at a fixed copper price of US$4.28. It also outlines all-in sustaining costs of US$2.00 per pound over a 14.2 year mine life.

In addition to the economic details, the included mineral resource estimate shows a measured and indicated resource of 149,000 metric tons of copper from 32.16 million metric tons of ore grading 0.46 percent copper.

Camino also owns the Los Chapitos project, which has been a long-time focus of the company. The project covers approximately 22,000 hectares near the coastal town of Chala, Peru, and hosts near-surface mineralization.

Camino has been conducting exploration efforts at Los Chapitos throughout the first half of 2025. On Wednesday, it reported trench results from the newly identified Mirador zone, including 1.07 percent copper over 90 meters, with a four-meter section containing 3.05 percent copper.

5. Solstice Gold (TSXV:SGC)

Weekly gain: 56.25 percent
Market cap: C$29.38 million
Share price: C$0.125

Solstice Gold is an exploration company focused on its flagship Strathy gold project in Ontario, which it acquired in June 2024.

The project consists of 45 claims covering an area of 45 square kilometers in the Temagami Greenstone belt. Historical documents report six gold showings in the central portion of the project areas, with documented mineralization at the Leckie prospect.

In its latest project update on July 2, Solstice announced it had wrapped up its spring drill program, which focused on four target areas. In total, the company completed 3,125 meters of drilling across 14 holes, and results are expected in July.

The company also reported that it had entered into an agreement to acquire 17 additional claims, which would increase the project area by 50 percent. It added that targets identified from its IP program may extend along strike into these claims.

FAQs for Canadian mining stocks

How much does it cost to list on the TSXV?

There are a variety of different fees that companies must pay to list on the TSXV, and according to the exchange, they can vary based on the transaction’s nature and complexity. The listing fee alone will most likely cost between C$10,000 to C$70,000. Accounting and auditing fees could rack up between C$25,000 and C$100,000, while legal fees are expected to be over C$75,000 and an underwriters’ commission may hit up to 12 percent.

The exchange lists a handful of other fees and expenses companies can expect, including but not limited to security commission and transfer agency fees, investor relations costs and director and officer liability insurance.

These are all just for the initial listing, of course. There are ongoing expenses once companies are trading, such as sustaining fees and additional listing fees, plus the costs associated with filing regular reports.

How do you trade on the TSXV?

Investors can trade on the TSXV the way they would trade stocks on any exchange. This means they can use a stock broker or an individual investment account to buy and sell shares of TSXV-listed companies during the exchange’s trading hours.

Gold pricing 101

Gold pricing is often characterized as being driven by “fear and uncertainty,” at least in the short run, including geopolitical fears like war and economic uncertainties such as recession. It is also typically recognized to be an “inflation hedge,” in the long run anyway.

Gold is an asset with a price determined in a 24/7/365 global auction, most often quoted per troy ounce, in the world’s reserve currency of US dollars. New supply plays an unusually small role compared to almost all other commodities, goods or services. Thus, highest bid wins.

Perhaps none of these things about gold, and its price, are new nor surprising. But what might be, despite the end of the gold standard in 1971 and legalization of gold investment in 1974, is that gold is still a shadow currency to fiat ones, especially US dollar, in the ‘always run.’

The annual gold price from 1960 to 2024 is displayed below, as sourced from the World Bank. Rises include: late 1970s; late 2000s; and mid 2020s. Slides include: early 1980s; late 1990s; and early 2010s. Overall growth was: Sum 555 percent; Ave 8.7 percent; Max 98 percent; Min –24 percent; and CAGR 6.8 percent.

Gold yearly growth ($).

Source: World Bank.

Money supply 101

Gold is the inflation hedge, precisely because it is shadow currency. Money supply is the inflation source, precisely because it is fiat currency. As Chicago economist Milton Friedman wrote in Money Mischief (1994): “In the modern world, inflation is a printing-press phenomenon.”

There are multiple money supply measures, such as M0, M1, M2 and M3. M1 includes paper and coin currency held by the general public as well as liquid bank deposits (e.g. checking accounts). M3 includes M1, plus less liquid bank deposits (e.g. savings accounts) as well as “repos.”

Austrian economist Robert Murphy details in Understanding Money Mechanics (2021) just how the Fed’s printing, Treasury bonds and bank loans create US money supply, through open market operations. Since 2008 and 2020, the Fed has expanded to buying and selling just about anything.

Speaking on behalf of the Fed, and all major central banks, the Bank of England wrote in Money Creation in the Modern Economy (2014): “(B)ank lending creates deposits. At that moment, new money is created. (This is) ‘fountain pen money,’ created at the stroke of bankers’ pens(.)”

Annual M1 and M3 money supply from 1960 to 2024 are displayed below, as sourced from the OECD. M3 starts to take off from the mid 1990s. Both blast off in the early 2020s, M1 in part due to redefinition. Combined growth was: Sum 533 percent; Ave 8.3 percent; Max 126 percent; Min –6.4 percent; and CAGR 7.4 percent.

Money yearly growth ($).

Source: OECD.

Gold inflation 101

Christian economist Gary North points out in Honest Money (2011) that businesses have three choices in the face of money inflation: A) profit deflation; B) price inflation; C) quality shrinkflation. Investors have a fourth: D) gold inflation. A, B, and C are all bad options. D is good.

The chart below shows cumulative annual growth of gold versus M1 and M3. Gold performs and protects against both M1 and M3 from 1974 to 2019, even in 2001, but not against M1 from 2020 to 2024. In 2019, gold had a 150 percent lead on M1 and 92 percent on M3. By 2022, it shrunk to –110 percent and 80 percent.

Cumulative yearly growth (percent).

Sources: OECD and World Bank.

A 2020 regression study found: “When the Federal Reserve increases money supply by 1%, gold prices increase by 0.94%.” A 2023 academic paper: “Confirms a long-term relationship between gold price and US M2.” Note that M1’s 2021 redefinition has now made it nearly identical to M1.

Period yearly change (percent).

Sources: OECD and World Bank.

However, the authors of Austrian School for Investors (2015) wrote: “Gold does not correlate with the rate of inflation as such, but with the rate of change of the inflation rate. In order to buttress this hypothesis, we calculated the regression depicted in (the chart below).”

Source: Austrian School for Investors: Austrian Investing between Inflation and Deflation.

In conclusion, as per my Wokenomics 101 (2023) ghost blog, money inflation by: “increasing demand puts upward pressure on price and quantity and downward pressure on quality.” That puts upward pressure on: nominal CPI and GDP statistics; as well as real gold investment and price.

Inflation doesn’t harm all. It helps some. They are the “Bootleggers and Baptists,” as Public Choice economist Bruce Yandle dubbed them in 1983. Bootleggers are crony capitalists, politicians and bureaucrats whose inflated revenue outpaces costs. Baptists are the “useful idiots.”

Thus, “Follow the Money” back to the “inflationistas” of: Big Business; Big Government; and Big Banks. All gain supernormal profits from easy money: one, making more money; two, collecting more money; and three, creating more money. Also, “Follow the Money” when it comes to gold.

And, sadly, there is one policy that is always bipartisan; print more money. But, gladly, gold will always win.

About Darren Brady Nelson

Darren Brady Nelson is chief economist with Fisher Liberty Gold and policy advisor to The Heartland Institute. He previously was economic advisor to Australian Senator Malcolm Roberts. He authored the Ten Principles of Regulation and Reform, and the CPI-X approach to budget cuts.